Israel-Iran Conflict: "An Interest in Defusing the Situation," Why Is Putin Offering to Mediate?

Historically, Russia has maintained good relations with Israel, which has a large Russian-speaking community. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israel's war in Gaza, criticized by Moscow, have strained their ties.

Russian authorities quickly condemned the Israeli strikes against Iran on Friday, and the Russian president then offered to act as an intermediary. However, the Kremlin said on Tuesday that it "observed" Israel's "reluctance" to accept external mediation.

For Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie think tank, Moscow has "an interest in defusing the situation." "Russia does not want regime change in Iran, especially if it results in a pro-Western government that would weaken Moscow's most important regional partner since the war in Ukraine," the researcher asserts.

Since its attack on Ukraine in 2022, Russia, marginalized in the West, has moved significantly closer to Tehran. Kyiv and its allies accuse Iran of supplying drones and short-range missiles to the Kremlin for its offensive. These accusations are rejected by Iranian authorities.

Under Western sanctions, the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in January, aimed at strengthening their ties, including "military cooperation," which is not, however, a mutual defense pact like the one linking Moscow with North Korea.

"Not an objective mediator"

At the regional level in particular, Russia has "every interest" in proposing this mediation, adds Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). "The change of regime in Syria has also cost it points," asserts this researcher, the Kremlin having supported, like Iran, the former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, who was overthrown in December.

In the past, Russia had already "emerged from the international isolation" caused by its annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula in 2014, "by making itself indispensable in the region," Kastouéva-Jean recalls. The Kremlin notably intervened militarily in Syria in 2015, saving Bashar al-Assad's power in the midst of a civil war. That same year, it supported the Iranian nuclear deal, which Washington denounced in 2018.

But this alliance with Tehran could also eliminate it as an intermediary in the conflict. For Russian analyst Konstantin Kalachev, such mediation "would not inspire confidence in Europe, nor in Israel," with Moscow being "perceived as Iran's ally."

This proposal was indeed received coldly by the European Union: "Russia cannot be an objective mediator," said a spokesperson for the European Commission, Anouar El Anouni, on Monday. "To the Kremlin that wants to make peace in the Middle East: start with Ukraine," mocked the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Noël Barrot, on Tuesday.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Donald Trump, who has initiated a spectacular rapprochement with Vladimir Putin since his return to the White House in January, has, on the contrary, declared himself "open" to this suggestion. "Russia is seeking to 'seduce' Trump on issues that go beyond Ukraine," believes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.

The American president, who had promised to resolve the war in Ukraine within "24 hours," has appeared to step back from the conflict in recent weeks, at a time when negotiations between kyiv and Moscow have reached an impasse.

In early June, the Russian head of state already told his American counterpart that he wanted to "contribute to the resolution" of the dispute between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear program. This issue is at the heart of the ongoing confrontation, with the stated objective of the strikes by Israel, an ally of the United States, being to prevent Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb, an ambition Tehran denies.

"By positioning itself as an indispensable intermediary," Moscow could, if necessary, use this status "to demand an easing of sanctions, diplomatic recognition of its territorial claims or even to gain acceptance for its behavior in Ukraine," analyzes Nicole Grajewski.

If Moscow takes on the role of mediator, it "would legitimize Russia as an indispensable great power at a time when it is waging the largest war of aggression on European soil since World War II," laments Anna Borshchevskaya of the Washington Institute think tank.